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Day July 10, 2009

Death of Habyarimana didn’t cause the Rwanda genocide

Dear world citizens,

Sorry, President Museveni of Uganda was kept in the dark as far as the intent and date of our going home  were concerned. Ask the Ugandan forces that tried to stop our guys from leaving what they met. As for the death of  Habyarimana as the cause of the genocide against the Tutsis, please just read the Arusha testimonies of the designers to that genocide. You will learn as to when the pangas were bought, which was way before Habyara died and which meetings came up with the list of the Tutsis in Rwanda and how fast they can be killed. You have also to acknowledge the killings of Abagogwe that was way before the Habyarimana’s  death to mention the few who were killed because of being Tutsis.

The return of Rwandans to Rwanda was in Uganda’s national interest.  The Uganda People Congress (UPC)’s that are preaching pretentiously about the genocide in 1994 were the same ones subjecting those same Rwandans to ethnic cleansing in 1982-83 in South-western Uganda.

I do not know whether some UPC supporters understand clearly what they mean when they say “..what triggered the genocide was the assassination of Habyarimana..”.  Do they mean that the mass murders of Tutisis and moderate Hutus would never have taken place if that plane had not been downed?  Does he mean that all the previous waves of Tutsi massacres were preceded by mini-Habyarimana plane crashes?  Had Tutsi and moderate Hutus been dying before or not?  Were the machettes bought in anticipation for the Habyarimana plane crash?

Or for that matter, what is a “trigger”?  As a corporal, I know that where there is a trigger, there is a round of ammunition with an explosive charge, there is a corking handle, there is a magazine, there is a firing chamber etc.  Is it YK Museveni of Uganda that concoted the Rwandan explosive mixture?  If indeed UPC supporters fully understands what they means by “trigger”, is it the same thing as the structural and historical causes of that genocide?  And in crisis analysis, do we previlge triggers over structural causes?  Unless we are UPCs who, when it comes to analysis, they highlight the first four letters of the word.

Why didn’t President Samora Machel’s death in a plane crash in 1987 spark off a genocide in Mozambique?  Yet many of us are the same people that were constantly calling those same Rwandans names, and claiming that they were taking all the good jobs.  When someone helps to find a way of getting them back where they rightfully belong, we again turn up talking the same nonsense of the Otikas, the Mulindwas and the rest of the loud-sounding-nothing horde……..just like the peasant husband who tells his wife, “do not peel the food and do not cook it but I should find it ready”.

Lance Corporal (Rtd) Otto Patrick  and

Mr.John Rukumbura

UAH forumists

The peasant mode of production must be stopped to avoid further famine

Dear Ugandans,

I am recycling this message to once again emphasize that the uncertainty of national food supply (“food insecurity”) is a function of over-reliance on the peasant mode of production.  The peasant mode of production has now reached its elastic limit and recurrent famine is clear testimony to that fact.  The country must find the final solution to the peasant question.  That population explosion bogey we keep resorting to whenever we come face-to-face with the limits of subsistence agriculture is sterile.

Uganda’s principle problem now is that it is experiencing an explosion of a population of elite that is mainly made up of part-time thinkers.

These were my words a few weeks ago:

1/6 An average person feeding on grains, legumes, vegetables and common meats requires about 300 Sq Metres of land to provide for his food requirements if the calorific consumption per day is the minimum requirement for a human being, i.e., about 2,600 calories per day; and assuming that there are 3 harvests per annum on that land.

2/6 An average human being requires at least 715 square metres of dwelling space at maximum dwelling density, this being the average amount of space per person in the great New York area.

3/6 Uganda has up to 5.2 million Hectares of arable land, that is, 13 million acres or 52 billion square meters. For the current population of 30 million, the optimum arable land one would expect to be used for food production, (assuming an average Ugandan consumes 2,500 calories of food per day – which he does not) is 18 billion square metres (30,000,000 x 300).

4/6 The amount of space that used for living is 2.15 billion sq M (30, 000,000 x 715) giving a total of 20.15 Billion Sq M that we would currently utilise if every Ugandan was taking up the maximum optimum living space (OLS) and consuming the recommended daily allowance of calories.

5/6 Therefore, out of our 52 Billion sq M, we are theoretically “using” only 38.75%. Basing on that computation, Uganda’s maximum carrying capacity is at least 77.42 million, which at the current rate of population increase shall be attained at 23:47 Hrs on 17 September 2036.

6/6 Note that, although we claim to be agricultural, our productivity is still abysmal. Kenya has only 4.6 million Hectares of land and they are able to add value agriculturally to the tune of $1,600 million per annum, compared to Uganda with 5.2 million hectares but adding value only to the tune of $574 million. Uganda’s value addition rate is about 36% that of Kenya. The difference can be attributed largely to Uganda’s peasant mode of production.

Lance Corporal (Rtd) Otto Patrick


Dear UAH,

1/7 The Countries of the world can be divided into three clans according to the waves of major change that they have undergone.  “First Wave” countries are the agrarian countries, whose Court of Arms is the hoe..  For such countries, man has only made one major transition: from being the hunter-gatherer to domesticating innocent beasts and cultivating crops.  “Second Wave” countries are the industrial countries whose Court of Arms is the assembly line and “Third Wave” countries are the post-industrial or information age countries Court of Arms is the Microchip.

2/7  The way countries work, produce, consume, socialize, politic, celebrate the beginning or end of life, raise families, fight wars, etc ……the way we live is shaped by the wave of change that precedes our present mode of existence.  Uganda today is a “First Wave” country, that is, one of those countries still living off the First wave of change unleashed ten thousand years ago by the invention of agriculture…about 90% of us are peasants just like England in 1381 during the peasant wars, and the 100 years war.

3/7 As you know, the precondition of any form human advancement is energy.  First wave societies like Uganda get all their energy from “living batteries”: human/animal muscle power, or direct from nature…the sun, wind, water.  If anything, Uganda is at the lowest end of the first wave: we have not even dared yet to make the transition from the use of human muscle power to harnessing animal muscle power.  We are not yet where Europe was by the time of the French revolution when they drew their energy from an estimated 14 million horses and 24 million oxen which pulled ploughs and carts, with waterwheels and windmills turning millstones etc.

4/7 Look at Uganda : everything is dependent on human muscle power.  Economic productivity of a low- grade first wave society like us is a function of the pairs of hands available to operate the hoe.  It is not a question of “moral hazard” as any member of UAH would wish to think, or ‘dark nights’ as Professor Kamuntu believes, or lack of financial penalties on reproduction as Mr Obbo has mused.  Making more and more pairs of hands available is a functional necessity.  Unless we break out of agrarianism, our demographic profile will not change.  The question here is: does high population growth cause poverty or it is poverty that causes a high population growth? If at all there is a causal relation between high population and poverty, then the latter is the cause and the former just a spinoff.

5/7 Civil War America graphically illustrates the contrast between First Wave and Second Wave demographics.  That civil war was a clash between the industrialism of the North (Unionists) and agrarianism of the South (Confederates).  The leader of the industrial cause, Abraham Lincoln had two siblings, while Jefferson Davis was the last born in a family of 10.  You mentioned China ’s one child policy.  China came up with the one child policy as soon as they started making the transition to the Second Wave. That policy has not been there all the time, as Mr Obargot has pointed out: it was conceived of in 1979, and implimented wef 2000.   The policy applies only to 35.9% of the population: it is restricted only to the urban areas. It does not apply to rural couples, ethnic minorities, and parents without any siblings themselves, or special administrative regions like Hong Kong and Macao..

6/7 The argument on population explosion is not convincing on several grounds: I remember from the days I was a mortar man, whenever there was an explosion, there would be fragments all around..  With our population explosion, where are the fragments?  We would expect to see a lot of old people around, yet globally, Uganda has the lowest number of people over the age of 65.  Why? : Because of our high mortality rates.  Just today, 2,794 children will be born in Uganda .  By 13 March 2010, 184 of them will have died, not because today is Friday 13th.  It is because in Uganda , 65.99 out of every 1,000 live births do not live to celebrate their first birth day.  We rank No. 35 in the world.  For the 1.02 million that will be born this year, those that will die will be the equivalent of 170 Boeing 747s packed with babies crashing at Entebbe at the rate of three per week.  Here is the point: the rate at which organisms reproduce is always commensurate with the odds of survival.  We reproduce a lot because we reduce a lot.  It is not immorality, it is mortality stupid!

7/7 The high maternal mortality you have highlighted is incidental to those underlying factors.  Uganda ranks at No. 23 in the world, with 510 mothers dying in child birth for every 100,000 live births.  Sadly, as long as we remain a “First Wave” or peasant society that atrocity against the mothers shall only pass as an occupational hazard, the whims/political will (or lack thereof) of our lumpen-bourgeoisie notwithstanding.  We are simply pushing the wrong buttons….Bottom line: we have to find the final solution to the peasant question.

Lance Corporal (Rtd) Otto Patrick

High Uganda population explained – A Shot in the Dark!…UGANDA….11.7 Bn

L_Cpl Otto:

Professor Kamuntu should have reflected on his own admission that only 9% of Ugandans have electricity.  If that is the case, how come the country is teaming with youth if only those with electricity are overdoing it?

Professor Kamuntu should  be helping the government to come up with credible measures to curb the population explosion. Uganda will not come close to meeting its millennium goals if the population growth continues to grow at that rate. Similarly Uganda won’t be able to offer effective health care to the people with such numbers.  It simply can’t even with plentiful oil money in the future.

Ugandans do not seem to appreciate the strong macroeconomic growth because the micro economic fundamentals are terrible. Very little attention has been paid to the household level which is both the victim and author of their own fate.

I understand the jist of Professor Kamuntu’s assertion: that lack of leisure and work activities forces Ugandans to engage in sexual activities.  he should live that to undergraduate students of micro economics. As the the minister in charge of planning it was very timid. He should tell Ugandans the uncomfortable truth, which is that as long as they continue to produce many babies, their fate is doomed. Period. Done.

There is no magic bullet out of poverty at the household level. Needless to say, households with more children are likely to be poorer than households with fewer children. As the minister in charge of planning that is the message he should convey to Ugandans religiously. As they say he should stay on message over and over.

The big question is how to get there given the socially conservative environment in the country.  Is the government of Uganda prepared to confront the elephant in the house and extend affordable, safe and accessible family planing services to those Ugandan women who want them? The minister can talk of natural methods if they want but the most effective method is well known.

Ugandans cannot have their cake and eat it too. No way. The best and yes more efficient method was the one suggested by Mr Onyango-Obbo in his Daily Nation column that to save Africa, time has come to levy a tax on babies. Incidentally  land tax would also be the most efficient in the country but Ugandans are allergic to taxation (read the big men are the largest landholders).  Yes, raise the cost of having babies without shifting the burden and cost on the poor Ugandan women. That could do the trick faster than this electricity angle.

The Minister as a respected economist should also help the state review the legacy of its  policies.  Are  some govt policies contributing to the population explosion?  For example could UPE and USE be having unintended consequences on population? How? Now that the barriers to education are no more even those Ugandans who may have sought of family planing/child spacing may not care anymore now that the burdens have been relieved.

You know Ugandans and their mentality “let us now produce the govt will educate” so they say.  But wait a minute the govt won’t feed or dress those kids.  Yes, it is proposing to treat them for free but not yet.  Are the very policies aimed to hep Ugandans hurting them instead?  That is for the govt to review and change course if necessary.

To be brunt, there is no political will to address the population explosion and its attendant poverty in Uganda. As a result the state is killing Ugandan women who have to produce until God relieves them of the burden.


Is there an inverse correlation between electricity consumption and size of population?

Dear UAH and Prof. Kamuntu,
Is there an inverse correlation between electricity consumption and size of population?  Then Uganda would be popolluted!
Below are two global tables showing data on population density and energy consumption per capita .
Britain’s per capita consumption of power is 5773 KWh per person, Uganda is at 30 KWh.  Uganda and Britain are about the same land area..  If we base population size on electricity consumption, Uganda’s population should be about 192 times that of Britain, i.e., 11.7 Billion.  However, Uganda’s population is about half of that of Britain..  As you can see, Uganda’s population density is 120 persons per sqkm, that of Britain is 246.
How do you explain that discrepancy, ‘in light’ of your new hypothesis on ‘shots in the dark’, Professor Kamuntu?
Also, another Professor told me that, Infant Mortality Rate is the number of infantry soldiers that die in any given battle.  Did he tell me the truth?
Lance Corporal (Rtd) Otto Patrick
1 Monaco 32,671 1.95 16,754
2 Singapore 4,327,000 699 6,336
3 Gibraltar (UK) 27,921 6 4,654
4 Vatican City 821 0.44 1,866
5 Bahrain 1,046,814 720 1,454
6 Malta 401,880 316 1,272
7 Bermuda (UK) 64,174 53 1,211
8 Maldives 329,198 298 1,105
9 Bangladesh 150,448,339 143,998 1,045
10 Guernsey 65,726 78 842
11 Jersey 91,533 116 789
12 Palestinian territories 4,018,332 6,020 667
13 Nauru 13,635 21 649
14 Republic of China (commonly, “Taiwan”) 22,894,384 35,980 636
15 Barbados 269,556 430 627
16 Saint-Martin (France) 33,102 53.2 622
17 Mauritius 1,244,663 2,040 610
18 Aruba (Netherlands) 103,484 193 536
19 Mayotte (France) 186,452 374 499
20 South Korea 49,044,790 99,538 498
21 San Marino 28,117 61 461
22 Puerto Rico (US) 3,954,584 8,875 446
23 Tuvalu 10,441 26 402
24 Netherlands 16,423,431 41,528 395
25 Lebanon 4,011,000 10,452 386
26 Martinique (France) 395,932 1,102 359
27 Comoros 797,902 2,235 357
28 Rwanda 9,037,690 26,338 343
29 Marshall Islands 61,963 181 342
30 Belgium 10,419,050 30,528 341
31 Japan 128,084,700 377,873 339
32 India 1,103,371,000 3,287,263 336
33 El Salvador 6,880,951 21,041 327
34 Saint-Barthélemy (France) 6,852 21 326
35 American Samoa (US) 64,869 199 326
36 Israel 7,180,000 22,072 325
37 U.S. Virgin Islands (US) 111,818 347 322
38 Sri Lanka 20,742,910 65,610 316
39 Réunion (France) 785,139 2,510 313
40 Guam (US) 169,635 549 309
41 Haiti 8,527,777 27,750 307
42 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 119,051 388 307
43 Saint Lucia 160,765 539 298
44 Philippines 84,566,000 300,076 282
45 Burundi 7,547,515 27,834 271
46 Grenada 102,924 344 260
47 Trinidad and Tobago 1,305,236 5,130 254
48 Vietnam 84,238,230 331,689 254
49 Guadeloupe (France) 405,000 1,628 249
50 United Kingdom 60,776,238 242,900 246
51 Jamaica 2,650,713 10,991 241
52 Germany 82,689,210 357,022 232
53 Netherlands Antilles (Netherlands) 182,656 800 228
54 Liechtenstein 34,521 160 216
55 Pakistan 165,935,100 803,940 198
56 Italy 58,092,740 301,318 193
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