DEATHS PER WEEK IN ACHOLI IDP CAMPS: 220 OR 1,000 ?


Dear readers,

Some people said that 1,000 people were dying in the IDP camps per day in northern Uganda?  For about 10 years? This works out as 1,000 x 365 x 10 years…..3,650,000 souls!

They sometimes said that 1,000 were dying per week for at least 10 years: 1,000 x 52 x 10 years…..520,000 souls!  And this was for a camp population that at highest was, according to the WFP, 57,000.

Let us now briefly step into the world of reality. I have with me a 2005 letter from the LC3 chairman of Atiak the county in Gulu that had some of the most dangerous IDP camps (…remember Barlonyo?).  In the letter , that chairman, Odong William George reported the deaths in the 14 Atiak IDP camps for the period 1-15 September 2005, i.e., 2 weeks, at 54 persons.  In other words, the weekly mortality rate was 27 persons.

As you may know, Gulu, Kitgum and Pader had 114 IDP camps.  If 27 persons died per week in 14 camps with the most adverse living and physical safety conditions, one can infer that on average about 220 persons died in all the 114 in Acholi region per week.  So, where did these people get their figure of 1,000 per week from (or 1,000 per day)?

The 10 years was the period over which the people of central Northern Uganda saw themselves being confined to IDP camps.  In fact one can even get it from the speech by their wonderful Dr Adam Branch( now a lecturer at  Makerere University) who refers to 1996 as the time when the camp policy was instituted.  Indeed they said that 1,000 people were dying per week, after being prompted to retract an earlier claim that those many people were dying per day.

They said that they prefer Dr Adam Branch’s data to Mr Odong GW’s data…, and who in his wonderful paper refers to the Acholi as “our fellow citizens…”.  Yes. Dr Branch gives the figure of 1,000 and I wonder whether he remembers where he got it from, a source that actually stated that the Acholi region was experiencing a Crude Death Rate (CMR) of 1 person per 1,000 per week, which he and the rest of you then flew off with in the fantasy of 1,000 per week (or per day when our propensity for adding binzali takes the better of us).

One George Okello(UAH forumist working with IMF in London) remarked that “But even if I take your figure of 220 deaths per week in the whole of Acholi, is this not so repugnant to human sensibility?” is quite predictable.  Then why doesn’t he just say that many people have died in Acholi, instead of confidently bandying around 1,000; whose source he did not tell us and over which he vacillate, as per day, and later, per week?

Okello also said , “..playing games with figures…”: who is playing games with figures? ….is he the one who the other day was saying that the for the NRA to be a people’s army, it should have have had 98% Baganda in its Luwero days? What was his response when he was informed that Buganda has only about 54.9% Baganda?

Anyway, I have included here the picture of the wonderful Dr Adam Branch whose hot air of a speech is what they authoritatively refer us to…….

Adam Branch

Otto Patrick

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Comments

14 Comments so far. Leave a comment below.
  1. ugandansatheart,

    My friend Corporal Otto,
    The 10 year period you are talking of is your invention. I never stated it. I said at one point more than 1,000 people were dying per week. Please read Dr Adam Branch’s speech delivered to a human rights gathering at the University of San Diego. You are wasting your time quoting to me figures of deaths provided by the minions or cohorts of the regime like your LC3 Chairman or your Mr Odong William George. I prefer the figures provided by Dr Branch because he actually lived in the camps at the height of the human tragedy and cruelty that was voluntarily inflicted on an innocent people who wanted protection but got only death and suffering of a magnitude that has never been witnessed in Uganda’s history. My own estimate is that over 200,000 people were massacred, all of them innocent people who should have been protected by a responsible government rather than being interned in squalid camps that denied them even the most basic of human dignity. That the death rates dropped was not because of the efforts of the NRA but because of the efforts of the humanitarian agencies. The World Food Programme took on the role of feeding these people you forcibly interned. But even if I take your figure of 220 deaths per week in the whole of Acholi, is this not so repugnant to human sensibility? This is barbarism on such an unimaginable scale my friend and I can categorically tell you it is a war crime attracting very severe penalties in international law. You have come up with your figures of 220 deaths per week, because you want to wriggle out of the charge of genocide, you only want to admit to war crimes, but this will not do my friend.
    But besides the above, I would go so far as to say the whole of Acholi and large parts of Lango and Teso were forcibly interned. The 114 IDP concentration camps you mention were only ones officially documented and run by the WFP and other internationa agencies. Entire communities in these areas were interned and a large number of Acholi became internally displaced, many fleeing to neighbouring Bunyoro.

    My friend Corporal Otto, playing games with figures is not going to erase a babarism that is now indeliby embedded in the annals of history and in the conciousness of a people forced against their will to suffer and to bleed at the hands of a brutal regime.Thats why this chapter of our history will never away and justice one day will catch up with perpetrators of these crimes no matter how long it take.

    Many thanks
    George Okello

  2. ugandansatheart,

    Partick Otto,

    Iwe Omusoga iwe, by the end of the day the Acholi people will have realized more deaths through transmittable diseases like AIDS, Cholera, typhoid and dysentery from living for 10 years in such confinements camps. Lets take a guesstimate of a growth rate of 0.083 rising out of the number increase from 1978 (13 million Ugandans) to 1988(30 million Ugandans) this would give us a growth rate of P(t)=P(0)e^rt where initial population(0) of 13 million is expressed as 13E6 and the current P(10) population of 30 million is expressed as 30E6. Now this is the fun part the methodology for extracting the growth rate r, this might include other factors such as immigration-we will make an assumption that they were not key in the overall ugandan population growth.

    30E6=13E6e^rt
    ln(P(t))=ln(P(0)) +ln(e^rt)
    ln(P(t))-ln(P(0))=rt(ln(e)) t=10 years
    (ln(P(t))-ln(P(0))/10) =r
    r =(ln(30E6) -ln(13E6)/10=(17.217-16.380)/10=0.8362
    This is a rough rate of growth that could be used to make a case for the Acholi people, if they had 4 million people at the beginning of the 10 years of encampment; lets compute with the above growth rate how many people would have been produced during that period.

    P(0) =4E6; P(10) =?
    P(10)=4E6*e^(.0836*10) =9230769.23
    9230769.23-4000000=5230769.23

    About 5 million people; if we assume that for 3650 days in ten years all production ceased and every new borns died we would be and there was no population growth we would be looking at 1425 people loss per day. If we use the current growth rate of about 3.56
    it would be close to 500 people a day.

    Nebyo

    Tendo Kaluma
    Boston

  3. ugandansatheart,

    Tendo Kaluma,

    Who would fard the hue of? There’s consience the hue of the with makes, puzzles, when we have his all; and the name will, and, by a sea off that sling afterpriz’d cowards of action. Thus there’s them? Ther death, thus thers the pative have slings of regard there’s turns, and arms man’s the natience of the whethe of the undiscorns office, the proud makes consummation. To beart-ache whips and native shocks that dread of the unwortal come with the pale count a consient make arrows of action delay, that.

    By the way, F x = ½ m ( V + v ) ( V is force acting a constate the above equare on a particle. A constant and at time t. The particle is the x-axis to be is W = m v². What time t. Here v ) / t = ½ m v². What t = ( V – v is way: The constant kinetic energy of the produce above equare of a directionstant x? We may the kinetic energy of this to the choose t. The particle in causing a = F and the product of F and this way: The call on then stant and V – v is equal to be is W = m V² – v ) ) / t = ( V – v ) / t = m a.

    Lance Corporal (Rtd) Otto Patrick (OC GIBBERISH)

  4. The numbers above reveal a disturbing trend in our population growth factor (rate), to think that our population grew so rapidly from 13 million to 33 million is what we ought to be intrigued about ,it makes the most interesting growth factor of the former century.

    The number 0.08362, is brought to life by what our current census proclaims it to be. I’m deeply worried that L_Cpl Otto, is more obsessed about a people who have been brutalized by this regime, and he has failed to focus on the real issue of unsubstantiated growth in the numbers of tribes and population, factors that have grossly inflated our population.

    The loss in population growth for the Acholi people, if the rate above is correct based on our census, may bear out those who made the extrapolation of 1000/week, when we look at all present and future opportunities of growth.
    This is never an enumeration of the discrete type as we count inanimate objects, we have to put into consideration that some of these young men and women who died during this period may have had the capacity to produce 6-12 off springs, coupled with the fact that a person infected with aids virus has the ability of infecting others for a span of 50 plus years, how does Otto intend on counting this exponential loss, all these consideration make this a very complex issues.
    That is why it is difficult to compensate folks caught in such internment camps, because there is no way of fully inventorying their loss, with that I advice Patrick Otto, to respect the loss of the Acholi people, until they themselves can come to grips with their own loss-we should all as Ugandans try and concentrate on how we can help them to recover from their worst nightmare. Doing otherwise is to fall into the Ahmadinejad holocaust denial trap, denying the obvious.

    Tendo kaluma
    Ugandan in Boston

  5. That is 1000×365(days)x20(years)=7,300,000 estimated, and when I see someone from the north supporting that regime, I really wonder. It is like a Palestinian in Gaza supporting an Israeli

    By the way if an army can commit crimes in a foreign country ( Congo ) and the international court find them guilty, how can they deny similar atrocities which were committed on the people of the north.

    I don’t understand these double standards, if Charles Taylor was president but was indicted what about those who were responsible for those crimes in Congo and northern Uganda ?

    ISAAC BALAMU
    LONDON

  6. Mr Balamu (BSc Eng, etc)

    1/5 I see you arguing somewhere on the forum in a manner that makes me regret why I opted out of debating the UPC/FDC/LRA propaganda on IDP deaths. I opted out of that debate particularly because I was doing your credibility a disservice by letting you go on and on the way you were doing. I thought we still needed you in debates on other issues that were less cumbersome for you to digest. Since you do not seem to have realised the service I was doing you, let us re-open that debate where we left it.

    2/5 Look below at your estimations of the deaths of Acholi from 1986-2006. You tell us: “That is 1000×365(days)x20(years)=7,300,000 estimated, and when I see someone from the north supporting that regime, I really wonder.” So, Mr Balamu, you are telling us that 7,300,000 people of Acholi died in IDP camps. When you talk like that, don’t you really see why someone should disengage in meaningful debate with you?

    3/5 The population of Acholi region in 1986 was 699,204 increasing to 746,796 in 1991 and on to 874,179 in 1996 when the policy of IDP camps was instituted as part of the counterinsurgency strategy against the LRA.

    4/5 You now claim that 7,300,000 million have died in those camps in 22 years! How do you feel in your mind after putting out such information for everybody to read? In 2005 when the mortality survey was conducted, the population of Acholi was 1,160,694. So, where did the 7.3 million victims of the Balamu & Co. genocide come from? What you are telling us here is that, every individual in Acholi was killed over and over 6.3 times. Kill, bury, exhume, kill again….6 (and a bit) times! Reading from your reasoning, Acholi land is now an empty space, strewn with tampered-with graves.

    5/5 According to the current annual national population growth rate of 3.2%, the population of Acholi will reach the figure of 7.3 million on 14 September 2063 at 2217 Hrs. So Mr Balamu, when today, 53 years ahead of that projection you tell us that those many people have been killed, don’t you really see that you are tragically comical? And you are the same Nottingham graduate that was the other day telling us that AM Obote should not be blamed for what happened during the build up to the 1980 elections because he returned to Uganda after those elections….and then told us that the Sam Magara that represented Fronasa at the Moshi conference in 1979 is the same individual that shot some people at Bulange recently…and that When Mr Semuwemba decided to moderate Mr Musisi’s messages that was tribalism! Aaaah!

    Lance Corporal (Rtd) Patrick Otto

  7. Patrick

    I stopped debating with you long time, if George had not responded I would not have read this post.

    You see for me a mad person does not make me mad, but I take great proud in my achievement in life and I thought I would correct you on this one. It is not Bsc Eng but BEng with honours,

    You see not everyone can be an Engineer Patrick, not every one can integrate and differentiate, if you know what that means in Calculus

    In addition, as usual you have missed the key word estimate. I thought we were at the same wavelength, I expected you to understand the meaning of an estimation

    Patrick take it or leave it, death of people in the hands of government is not acceptable. It was the government who put those people in camps> Uganda is not that only country where we have had war, how many countries put their people in camps, this was not even down in Kosovo.

    So when did the government know it was not going to be able to defend the people to put them in camps, why didn’t the government declare a state of emergency, why did the government prevent parliament debating the emergency bill.

    Mr Mulindwa has asked some questions on Kony just recently here, why have you failed to respond to his analysis, and pick up such a minor issue f numbers.

    Of course you are tribalistic and I don’t apologise for saying it, it evident, your posts are anti one group and if something is said anything about your westerner relatives you come out fighting and brand them all sorts of names.

    Can you tell us why ADF was defeated and not Kony, was it because it was in based in the WEST?

    I don’t expect you to answer this because you hardly answer anything serious, when I put here figures which showed 35% of jobs go to the west, why didn’t you come and defend it.

    I’m a UPC supporter and make no appologises about it Mr but i believe that the people of Acholi are human beings like me and should not have gone through this suffering at the hands of governement and i will never make appologies for this too, better open a file for me at your kireka office, but i will never stop holding the governement responsible for these death. It does not matter how many, but did they die under their watch?
    ISAAC BALAMU

  8. Mr Balamu,

    Luno olwidhi: “omukhaire agemera kwiwolu”. Olwo nayigira e Nawantale. Oidhiyo? Baba wange yaberangayo mu Tsetse control…..

    By the way, you claimed that you found me unconvincing regarding matters to do with the country’s North. How unconvincing do I have to be when I can offer to teach you the language of the central north, Acholi? Did you see Lesson One? Tomorrow I will give you Lesson Two, on substantives/nouns.

    I emphasize your academic qualifications because you are never shy to tell me every now and then that we soldiers, “Abasiru Kale”, we hate you the learned. I now feel obliged to massage your little ego. Thanks for the correction. You are not a scientist after all…had given you BSc Eng…so you have something else…with horns etc….si jui “B Eng”…I am a proud owner of a “Cambridge Certificate of Education” from Kawerimidde Senior in Kiriri, Gomba…1965. I hope you won’t compare your Nottingham with my Cambridge! Kabiri nkukobere iwe munha, ife twasoma!

    Accordingly, take note that I am not an engineer. I see you down there telling me: “You see not everyone can be an Engineer Patrick….” Engineer Patrick? Reminds of something else you said: “At the airport, I travelled with a mugishu woman….” , which also sounds like: “Sitting on a fence, a bee stung me”: Making one wonder about who/what was sitting on the fence….or, our catechist at Nawantale who in his on the last supper also disregarded his punctuations and went” “Bubamara kulya Yesu…” i.e., “after they ate Jesus they…so, if you want to ridicule Otto, do so in grammar please. I will soon be back with a substantive response to yours further below.

    Lance Corporal (Rtd) Patrick Otto

  9. Mr Balamu,

    1/7 You recently claimed that by 2005, 7.3 million Ugandans had died in the IDP camps in Acholi. Below I refute your claim with reasons. Now, this is what you say:

    * a mad person does not make me mad
    * not every one can integrate and differentiate, if you know what that means in Calculus
    * You have missed the key word estimate. I thought we were at the same wavelength, I expected you to understand the meaning of an estimation
    * death of people in the hands of government is not acceptable.
    * Mr Mulindwa has asked some questions on Kony
    * when I put here figures which showed 35% of jobs go to the west, why didn’t you come and defend it.
    * Can you tell us why ADF was defeated and not Kony
    * open a file for me at your kireka office
    * etc, etc

    2/7 What is all that about? Are you advancing those as reasons to support your assertion that an estimated 7.3 Million people died in Acholi? Are you refuting the fact that the Acholi population are projected to number 7.3 million in 2053 and it is not possible that those many Acholi could have died by 2005 when the region’s population was 1,160,694, having been 699,204 in 1986 when the NRA/UPDF deployed there? Far from claiming that Otto is mad, do you really not think that it is actually mad for anybody to make that claim of 7.3 Million deaths in Acholi?

    3/7 You are saying that 7.3 million was an estimate, and mad Otto missed that key word, “estimated”. But in your field of civil engineering there are what you call the “Principles of estimating”. The master principle of estimation is: “An estimate must be an accurate and realistic reflection of reality; and it must embody not just possibility but probability”. Now, here you are, presenting a bill of quantities for constructing a Masai manyatta that would actually do for the Empire State building. If you are truly an engineer, why can’t your reasoning reflect your schooling? Is it academic kwashiorkor?

    4/7 Now you are whipping up the ADF smokescreen, and that Otto is a westerner etc. Are you telling us that because you think Otto is a Westerner, or because the ADF was defeated, therefore 7.3 Million people died in the Acholi IDP camps?

    5/7 Because you cannot support your febrile propaganda with sensible data, you are telling us that after all, it does not matter how many people died. So, it does not matter! That is why any figure can do: 7.3 million by you, 10,000 a week by Okello George, 1,000 a day by Wafula Oguttu! Is that the most sensible way you people are going to engage in debate on the country’s future?

    6/7 Now you are telling us that the NRA/UPDF did not defeat the LRA because it was in the North and that, it is rebel groups like ADF that are based in the West that the NRA/UPDF defeats. You make such claims, and then go ahead to assert that Otto is a mad man. Now, sane man, let me ask you some 22 questions for which you should furnish 22 answers:

    Was Uganda National Rescue Front I (UNRFI) in the west?

    Was Uganda National Rescue Front II(UNRFII) in the west?

    Was Former Uganda National Army (FUNA) in the west?

    Was West Nile Bank Front I (WNBFI) in the west?

    Was West Nile Bank Front II (WNBFII) in the west?

    Was Uganda Peopleʼs Democratic Army (UPDM/A) in the west?

    Was Holy Spirit Movement/Holy Spirit Mobile Forces I (HSMI) in the west?

    Was Holy Spirit Movement/Holy Spirit Mobile Forces II (HSMII) in the west?

    Was Citizen Army for Multiparty Politics (CAMP) in the west?

    Was Force Obote Back Army (FOBA) in the west?

    Was Uganda Peopleʼs Army (UPA) in the west?

    Was Uganda Mujahdeen Movement (UMM) in the west?

    Was Action Restore Justice (ARJ) in the west?

    Was Uganda National Democratic Alliance (UNDA) in the west?

    Was Federal Democratic Movement (Fedemo) in the west?

    Was Uganda Freedom Movement (UFM) in the west?

    Was Uganda Salvation Force/Army (USF/A) in the west?

    Was Lordʼs Army in the west?

    Was Anti-Referendum Army (ARA) in the west?

    Was Uganda Salvation Force/Army (USF/A) in the west?

    Was Ninth October Movement/Army (NOM/A) in the west?

    7/7 Are you actually aware that in the form of LRA, Uganda was actually in a stand-off with Khartoum and ultimately Khartoum was defeated by UPDF, the Government of South Sudan has been constituted and Kony now is an expatriate/tourist bandit in CAR? One has to trust you to rustle up a smokescreen: 35% jobs go to the West! I wish I had seen your question to me! Let me not make this too long. I will answer that separately.

    Lance Corporal (Rtd) Patrick Otto

  10. Peter Okello Maber/ My friend Corporal Otto,

    First my friend Peter Okello, you prematurely terminated our debate, which is not a gentlemanly to do I must say. Hiding your tail under your bum is no good, I must say.

    As for this debate the deaths in the concentration camps, corporal Otto keeps on spewing or inveigling spurious statistics that serve him no purpose. Dr Adam Branch mentioned at the time he was in the concentration camps, up to 1,000 per week were dying. He never said that these deaths started from 1986. And the UN report was also talking about a specific period when the lunatic excesses of the NRA regime became widely known to the entire world and the NRA was forced to moderate its campaign of murder and terror against Northern and Eastern Ugandan villagers, innocent people, terrified and mercilessly murdered by a very cruel regime. Corporal Otto’s statistics don’t add up. He is speculating on some form of lurid intellectual sophistry. But the facts will never go away. As my Philippines comrades say, once you have bathed your hands in blood, the stain will never go away, no matter how hard you try. The NRA knows it is guilty and is condemned for murdering Ugandan peasants in their thousands, peasants who had committed no crimes and were subsisting on a precarious subsistence economy. To then deliberately put them in concentration camps, murder them on an irrational and consistent basis, and then reduce the argument to one of statistics, it just defies human comprehension. Even just one dead peasant would be bad enough but to talk of thousands!!!

    George O. Pacu-Otto

  11. Spurious data because I mentioned the Acholi population of 1986? No! I do not say anywhere that Adam Branch claims that to be the base year from which he computes the “1000 per week death rate”. I was using 1986 as the base year for computing demographic change. We all know that the policy of IDP camps started in 1996. So, avoid that straw man.

    You say: “Corporal Otto’s statistics don’t add up. He is speculating on some form of lurid intellectual sophistry. But the facts will never go away.”

    That reminds me of our primary school days when during break time argments, you would state that, “cockroaches breath through spiracles” and then some one responds by saying that your mother looks like a rat. That is how you debate, Mr Okello. That only passes for a logical fallacy: argumentum ad hominem, appeal to spite etc: as you know, claims are countered by claims. Not by insults, however flowery. Provide us with the facts, furnish us with alternative data.

    I was questioning Mr Balamu’s assertion that 7.3 million Acholi died in IDP camps and now you are telling me about the wisdom of your in laws in Mindanao. Does your in laws wisdom support or refute what Mr Balamu is saying? Why is it that when the LRA was squeezed out of northern Uganda, massacres ended? Is the NRA as you call it still in northern Uganda or not? Similarly, why is it that when the UNLA was squeezed out Luwero, massacres ceased? Why is it that as soon as UNLA entered West Nile in the 1980s, massacres began?

    Let us go back to the real argument. The figure that you quote is from the WHO researchers who based on conjecture and calculated self interest and cooked up a Crude Mortality Rate that has been seriously questioned by other reputable bodies. Relief organisations that were on the gound in Acholi came up with a CMR between 0.4-0.9 per 10,000 per day as opposed to the 1.54 of the WHO tourists. While the population of the whole of Acholi was about 1,160,694, those tourists based on the figure of 2 million (the population in 2020), and even went ahead to assume that everyone in Acholi region was in an IDP camp. Using the Crude mortality rate observed by groups that were on the ground for a long period of time, weekly deaths in all the 114 IDP camps could have averaged 475, for 90% of the 2005 population.

    Take note also that whether Ugandans are in IDP camps or not, they die. That is why you hear of a life expectancy of 49.7 years, with or without your friend Joseph Kony. The normal crude death rate for Uganda is 0.44 per 10,000 per week. For the 1.04 million people in Acholi IDPs, that would bring it to 321 deaths per week without IDP camps.

    The letter below from the Atiak LC3 in 2005 reports what was actually happening on the ground. The area covered by that report had 14 IDP camps ( Elegu, Gunya, Abalokodi, Pacilo, Muruli, Bajere, Laraba, Gordon, Okidi, Lagwe Ringo, Lulayi, Pawiro, Ajukumanyige and Katikati). Basing on those deaths reported below, i.e., 27 deaths in 14 camps per week, the mortality in 114 camps in all of Acholi would be 220, not 1,000.

    So, from what ever angle you look at the question, it does not help you of UPC and LRA or FDC to keep bandying about the figure of 1,000. Neither does it help you to start telling us that the matter should not be reduced to mere statistics especially when we catch you using fake statistics.

    =================================================================

    Lance Corporal (Rtd) Patrick Otto

  12. Dradrigo Matchel,

    this is purely hopeless crap baseless, and very typical white writers, paternalistic and ignorant about status quo of africa, pure crap

  13. I’m really impressed with your writing talents as well as with the format for your weblog. Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Either way stay up the excellent high quality writing, it’s uncommon to look a nice blog like this one
    nowadays.. 1T6-540 Test Trep

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