I will be surprised if it were true that people in the North and North East have been voting against Museveni merely because of being in IDPCs.That could be one of the very many reasons. But it is not the main one or single one. The issues of the economy — poverty, discrimination by government, corruption, unemployment, loss of cows in Lango and Teso to rebels, to NRA and Karamojong, poor health facilities, poor education Plus over staying in power, massacring people in Buganda, humiliating the Kabaka, interfering in Kyabazinga elections and generally dividing Uganda for easy ruling are far more critical to people. And that is across the country.
Last time Museveni was spot on and campaigned and perhaps got elected on the promise of making everybody prosperous in their varying degrees. That has has turned out to have been a big joke or fraud. Nothing has happened except the looting of NAADS funds by his henchmen and women. And he can never stop the looting because that is the very foundation of his present regime. The looting starts right in State House. So what will make Ugandans give Museveni more time? What can he do what he has failed to do in 25 years?
In the year 2009 FDC leaders travelled widely in the country. – in Lango, Acholi, Busoga, Mukono, Soroti, Karamoja, Bukedi, Kasese, Bunyoro, Kigezi, Insingiro, Masaka . IIt is impossible to see where Museveni will get the votes.People want change. Even NRMs want change. Indeed a recent security/political report put Museveni popularity rating at 32% and 65% who would not vote for him. That was not very differnct from what we knew in FDC. No wonder, today it is so difficult to see people out there who openly, firmly and happily identify themselves as NRM. Not more than3 in 10.please do your own opinion poll. You will be surprised.
No. NRM plans to buy votes (we hear at shs 10,000 per vote) from the people they have greatly impoverished and not to campaign and get elected. In addition, they plan to use violence .That is why they have trained and armed all their MPs, all sub-county chiefs, LC3 Chairs and Party cadres into a Party Militia force said to be now about 15,000. Can a popular Party and in power be doing that? Is he any different from Mugabe and his murderous veteran goons?
Museveni will never win in the north and Teso Even Karamoja is slipping away.He also knows it and that is why he does not plan any mischief in those areas. His last battles will be in the West, parts of Buganda dominated by Western immigrants and parts of Busoga.
I am not sure at this point as to who the youth will see as their lead change agent during the 2011 elections and vote for him. What I am sure of is that about 70% of the voters will be youth, below 35years and about 80% of them are angry because they have no employment and see no prospects under Museveni or NRM. Ironically they are the children of the NRM revolution who do not appreciate these things Museveni keeps singing about past regimes and having brought peace. What they now want is gainful employment and good life, period.
It is good Nobert Mao has said he is also for opposition alliance. But the two supposed advantages some people say he could benefit from namely; the sympathy vote for a” home boy” from the north and being youthful himself have been exaggerated. That is how him and Awori thought in 2001 when they teamed up under some Party no longer on the books and made insignificant headway in those areas.Even NRM leaders who are sectarians will always hide behind the national curtain.
Ugandans might vote for “home boys and girls” as MPs but not for President. For President, as in the past, they will be looking for someone to win and bring them the much desired change.
Yes, splitting the Opposition vote (presently about 65% in total) could complicate the results a bit and cause a re- run But it will not give Museveni a win or improve on his 30% or so votes.The youth will not go to him.
Wafula Oguttu Philip