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Day January 2, 2010

MUSEVENI KNOWS HE CAN NOT WIN IN A CLEAN FIGHT


I will be surprised if it were true  that people in the North and North East have been voting  against Museveni  merely because of  being in IDPCs.That could be one of the very many reasons. But it is not the main one or single one. The issues of the economy —  poverty, discrimination by government,  corruption, unemployment,  loss of cows in Lango and Teso to rebels, to NRA and Karamojong, poor health facilities, poor education  Plus over staying in power, massacring people in Buganda, humiliating the Kabaka, interfering in Kyabazinga elections and  generally dividing Uganda for  easy ruling are far more critical to people. And that is across the country.

besigye on a campaign trail in 2006

Last time Museveni was spot on and campaigned  and perhaps got elected on the promise of making everybody prosperous in their varying degrees. That has has turned out to have been a big joke or fraud. Nothing has  happened except the looting of NAADS funds by his henchmen and women. And he can never stop the looting because that is the very foundation of his present regime. The looting starts right in State House. So what will make Ugandans give Museveni more time? What can he do what he has failed to do in 25 years?

In the year 2009  FDC leaders travelled  widely in the country.  – in Lango, Acholi,  Busoga,  Mukono, Soroti, Karamoja, Bukedi, Kasese, Bunyoro, Kigezi, Insingiro, Masaka . IIt is impossible to see where Museveni will get the votes.People want change. Even NRMs want change. Indeed  a recent  security/political    report put Museveni popularity rating  at 32% and 65% who would not vote for him. That was not very differnct  from what we knew in FDC. No wonder, today it is so difficult to see  people  out there who openly, firmly and happily  identify themselves as NRM. Not more  than3 in 10.please do your own opinion poll. You will be surprised.

No. NRM  plans to buy votes (we hear at shs 10,000 per vote) from the people they have greatly impoverished  and not to campaign and get elected. In addition,  they plan to use violence .That is why they have trained and armed all their MPs,  all sub-county chiefs, LC3  Chairs and Party cadres into a Party Militia force said to be now about 15,000. Can a popular Party and in power be doing that?  Is he any different from Mugabe and his murderous veteran goons?

Museveni will never  win in the north and Teso Even Karamoja is slipping away.He also knows it and that is why he does not plan any mischief in those areas. His  last battles  will be in the West, parts  of Buganda dominated by Western  immigrants and parts of Busoga.

I am not sure at this point as to who the youth will  see as their lead change agent during the 2011 elections and vote for him. What  I am sure of is that about 70% of the voters will be youth, below 35years and about 80% of them are angry because they have no employment and see no prospects  under Museveni or NRM. Ironically  they are the children of the NRM revolution  who do not appreciate these things Museveni keeps singing about past regimes and having brought peace.    What they now want is gainful employment  and good  life, period.

It is good Nobert Mao has said he is also for opposition alliance. But the two supposed advantages  some people say he could benefit from namely; the sympathy vote for a” home boy” from the north and being  youthful himself have been exaggerated. That is how him and Awori thought in 2001 when they teamed up  under  some Party no longer on the books and made insignificant  headway in those areas.Even NRM leaders who are sectarians will always hide behind  the national curtain.

Ugandans might vote for “home boys and girls” as MPs but not for President.  For President, as in the past, they will be looking for  someone to  win and bring them the much desired change.
Yes, splitting the Opposition vote  (presently about 65% in total) could complicate the results a bit and cause a re- run  But it will not give Museveni a win   or improve on his 30% or so votes.The  youth will not go to him.

Wafula Oguttu Philip

UAH forumist

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Wars Britain has been involved in since 1684


If you take the year 1684 when the modern British army was established under King Charles II, as the base year, the British army has been involved continuously in one conflict or another for more than 300years.
 
 
Under William Blathwayt as the first Secretary at War, the British army was managed by the British War Office, a full time government department in charge of waging war.
 
 
The Establishment of the British War Office in 1684 under the Secretary at War and later Secretary of State for War saw the establishment, expansion and dominance of the British empire throughout the Americas, Asia and much later Africa.
 
 
In 1801 the British government established a separate department within the War Office to be in charge of colonies and renamed the combined department as the Department for War and the  Colonies, headed by Secretary of State for War and the Colonies. The modern British ministry of defence was only established in 1947 just one year before the collapse of Britain’s major colony the India British Empire in 1948 when India achieved her independence.
 
 
 
From 1948 to the mid 1960s the British ministry of defence was engaged in multiple suppression of anti colonial insurgencies throughout Africa and Asia. For the last 4 decades the British army has been in a state of war in the troubles of Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement notwithstanding. Britain has lost more than 700 soldiers in the Northern Ireland troubles so far.
 
 
The period from 1990 when Britain and America and other coalition forces waged the first Gulf War to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi invasion saw the beginning of a continuous British Military involvement in the region until today.
 
 
British military involvement in the war in Iraq in 1990 has, since the subsequent 911 terrorist atrocities of 2001, expanded to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somali and Yemen in the war against terror.
 
 
The above is merely an attempt to illustrate British war policy for the last 300 years rather than cite individual day to day conflict underpinned and overseen by that policy.

Regards
 
 
Pilipo Oruni

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