February 2010
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Day February 23, 2010

NRM vs IPC? good strategy or dumb politics?


Now that some of us are in the neither/nor political space in Uganda, it is time to take a look at this IPC thing.  Who benefits from IPC?  Of course I expect most UAH members to come right back that the opposition. But is it true?

Show us the voting intentions of DP, UPC, FDC, PPP, CP, JEEMA and so on members. Ok, do the poll and find out from members of the respective with the simple question. Suppose the opposition was to unite under the IPC-again has it been registered yet-how do you plan to vote?

The point I am trying to alert members of the opposition or proponents of the IPC is that you may be in for a rude shock. It is possible that in the absence of a UPC, DP, CP, or even FDC candidate, the second choice of many voters could be NRM.  And given the ambition or should we say the focus on winning and not so much on the process, there is actually no guarantee than some IPC candidates will not do what Haji Sebagala has now done; quit DP because the elections in Mbale were not free and fair?  Oh, boy.

How many UAH members are comfortable that the opposition parties under the IPC umbrella will not screw up big time? How many can vouch that the IPC will get the process right? How many are sure that rigging will not take place in IPC?  So far what the IPC folks have talked about is IPC and not so much about the process.

For example who will elect the IPC candidates? Will it be ordinary party members, party delegates or members of the respective executive committees? How will votes be shares out among parties? Will all parties that join IPC be treated as equal partners in terms of voting or some arties are more equal than others?

Seeing what you have seen elsewhere, it is very likely that the fallout from a botched IPC could be so huge that a substantial voting chunk will walk right in the hands of NRM.  I am only reminding you to be careful because I do not see folks who believe in winning and nothing else come to terms under the IPC. How genuine is IPC or it is something that could deflate voters at the end?

I appreciate that this is not what many in UAH want to hear, but it is possible that for many voters, if UPC, DP, CP, PPP or even FDC is not on the ballot, they could vote NRM. That is for some voters NRM is their second intention just as for some voters in NRM, DP or UPC is their second choice.  That is what you should bear in mind as you match towards IPC.

Now the big question: who benefits if only NRM and IPC were on the ballot in 2011? You do not want to know, do you?

Pole to Haji Sebagala, but as Mr. Sesanga now reminds us “omujjega affa alaba”. Mambo bado.

I saw Mr Yoga’s writing. You know I admire Mr Yoga because he speaks his mind which is not what you young folks want to hear. Actually, you young people are abusive which makes some of shudder what will happen to Uganda if they were to get power. you are also impatient and I see them discriminating against old people or for that matter anyone over 50.  Now if you do not want the 50 plus to lead, why should they vote for you? Granted they are not many in Uganda where the population bulge is dominated by the under 16-they have no vote!

Now reflect on the main message which is that IPC may not be the best strategy to check YKM/NRM for the reason I highlighted. I could be wrong but I do not see folks who only care about winning by any means neccessary come to terms under the IPC umbrella.  They are lying to the gullible Ugandans as usual and setting them up for dissappointment.

The sooner IPC supporters came to terms with the reality in Uganda the better.


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