NRM vs IPC? good strategy or dumb politics?


People:

Now that some of us are in the neither/nor political space in Uganda, it is time to take a look at this IPC thing.  Who benefits from IPC?  Of course I expect most UAH members to come right back that the opposition. But is it true?

Show us the voting intentions of DP, UPC, FDC, PPP, CP, JEEMA and so on members. Ok, do the poll and find out from members of the respective with the simple question. Suppose the opposition was to unite under the IPC-again has it been registered yet-how do you plan to vote?

The point I am trying to alert members of the opposition or proponents of the IPC is that you may be in for a rude shock. It is possible that in the absence of a UPC, DP, CP, or even FDC candidate, the second choice of many voters could be NRM.  And given the ambition or should we say the focus on winning and not so much on the process, there is actually no guarantee than some IPC candidates will not do what Haji Sebagala has now done; quit DP because the elections in Mbale were not free and fair?  Oh, boy.

How many UAH members are comfortable that the opposition parties under the IPC umbrella will not screw up big time? How many can vouch that the IPC will get the process right? How many are sure that rigging will not take place in IPC?  So far what the IPC folks have talked about is IPC and not so much about the process.

For example who will elect the IPC candidates? Will it be ordinary party members, party delegates or members of the respective executive committees? How will votes be shares out among parties? Will all parties that join IPC be treated as equal partners in terms of voting or some arties are more equal than others?

Seeing what you have seen elsewhere, it is very likely that the fallout from a botched IPC could be so huge that a substantial voting chunk will walk right in the hands of NRM.  I am only reminding you to be careful because I do not see folks who believe in winning and nothing else come to terms under the IPC. How genuine is IPC or it is something that could deflate voters at the end?

I appreciate that this is not what many in UAH want to hear, but it is possible that for many voters, if UPC, DP, CP, PPP or even FDC is not on the ballot, they could vote NRM. That is for some voters NRM is their second intention just as for some voters in NRM, DP or UPC is their second choice.  That is what you should bear in mind as you match towards IPC.

Now the big question: who benefits if only NRM and IPC were on the ballot in 2011? You do not want to know, do you?

Pole to Haji Sebagala, but as Mr. Sesanga now reminds us “omujjega affa alaba”. Mambo bado.

I saw Mr Yoga’s writing. You know I admire Mr Yoga because he speaks his mind which is not what you young folks want to hear. Actually, you young people are abusive which makes some of shudder what will happen to Uganda if they were to get power. you are also impatient and I see them discriminating against old people or for that matter anyone over 50.  Now if you do not want the 50 plus to lead, why should they vote for you? Granted they are not many in Uganda where the population bulge is dominated by the under 16-they have no vote!

Now reflect on the main message which is that IPC may not be the best strategy to check YKM/NRM for the reason I highlighted. I could be wrong but I do not see folks who only care about winning by any means neccessary come to terms under the IPC umbrella.  They are lying to the gullible Ugandans as usual and setting them up for dissappointment.

The sooner IPC supporters came to terms with the reality in Uganda the better.

WBK

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Comments

8 Comments so far. Leave a comment below.
  1. ugandansatheart,

    There will be no rigging in IPC primaries.An almost water tight democratic process has been worked out and agreed upon as provided in the Additional Protocol.All Parties are equal with one vote each or if need be with one delegate with one vote.IPC may not be able to prevent opportunists among them from gravitating towards NRM”s dirty money.But they will not derail us, I can assure you all.
    Wafula ogutu

  2. ugandansatheart,

    The question of whether DP can or cannot win the 2011 presidential and general elections shouldn’t bother us now.

    The entry of Mao in the equation has introduced a new dimension in Uganda’s politics. Mao has complicated the political scene. Considering the current presidential aspirants, the 2011 elections promises to be brutal, violent and anti-Uganda.

    If we get Mao, Museveni, Besigye or Muntu, Bidandi Ssali, the winner will barely scrap through. Nobody will get a commanding majority, nobody will get a clear mandate of the population. That will be a disaster for the country.

    Those with military groups will be tempted to bring them out.

    Therefore, in the interests of Uganda’s stability, which is necessary if our oil discovery is going to be of benefit to us, peace must first be ensured. And you do not ensure peace by establishing as many military detaches as possible to silence people. You cannot produce oil if the country is facing active militant groups. And the lack of transparency today in the sharing of oil wealth is going to be an election issue which will, as we are seeing in other countries, will cause hot tempers to rise.

    Oil wealth distribution is going to play a major role of how Uganda is going to be government after the 2011 elections. Oil wealth sharing will be a major campaign issue in the 2011 elections..

    Therefore, to forestall the oil curse wars, the Buganda problem, it will be in the country’s interests for the major presidential aspirants, Mao, Museveni and Besigye, to form a Government of National
    unity. The three major contestants must assure us, well in advance, that they will form a government of national unity because nobody will get a commanding mandate of the population at the elections..

    The three should even sit down early enough, and agree on formula for power sharing. If they do not do this Uganda will face face a terrrible future in the 2011 elections.

    Henry Ford Mirima

  3. ugandansatheart,

    Ugandans

    The single largest problem of Ugandans is that they read a plan and they swallow it without thinking about it critically. IPC was a wrong plan from get go, but no one cared to listen. And we told them that if you want to unite a force that is fine but stand as a political party then after election unite the MPs. Ugandans refused. And to tell you the truth I have started to get very frustrated with the Ugandans of this age, especially those that bloomed out of Luwero war. They do not listen they do not think critically and many times they go FAAAAAAAAA !!!! It is so hard to build a society politically when it simply swallows every crap thrown at them, for IPC is truly crap. Now you have screwed the entire electorate through preaching for IPC which is a true nonsense and which has failed to even take a stand to today. Take that crap to a Muzeeyi in Kyotera who always elects DP and see if she understands it.

    Like I said yesterday this stupidity makes a Movementist sleep with a glee.

    EM
    Toronto

  4. ugandansatheart,

    Mr Wafula-Oguttu:

    Good to hear that IPC has water tight rules but still I am cautioning you to be careful. You may also be wasting time and courting more headache. You know where I am going with this.

    Let it be NRM, IPC and others. That may be the best thing for IPC and not just NRM vs IPC. You have to think outside the box because you may lose more by addition. you may painfully discover that the more you add, the more gets subtracted. It is up to your strategists to determine the optimal number and get going. Again think about that.

    If the process is fair, the ends will most likely be fair too.

    WBK

  5. ugandansatheart,

    Ndugu Waf, I actually hope that there will be no rigging in the IPC primaries if they ever take place. It would be a great thing to see a clean primary in IPC.

    Just wondering!? Will the FDC membership accept an IPC led by Mao, Ochieno, Lukyamuzi or Akena for instance?

    Is it true that FDC is only keen on this IPC thing so long as Dr. Besigye is its flag bearer?

    Here I have deliberately avoided talking about Gen. Mugisha because he has already been rigged out of the FDC race due to the near impossible conditions the FDC owners have imposed on his campaign.

    He has been told not to mention the weakness of the incumpent and his rival (Besigye) on his campaign trail. These conditions are akin to telling Dr. Besigye to campaign against president Museveni and not to mention his (Museveni’s) weakness. Impossible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    With his mortar mouth Dr. Besigye would probably collapse in a campaign rally if he were denied the chance to rail at president Museveni. So then how can FDC order Gen. Muntu not to refer to Dr. besigye’s weakness? Why is he then standing against the Colonel?

    So now you can see how the FDC primaries have been rigged in advance unless of course the party is just putting up a fake show that it has internal democracy and that the primaries are a serious thing!

    I sometimes feel sorry for Gen Muntu when all he says in hsi campaigns for the FDC primaries is instead directed against President Museveni and not Dr. Besigye. One could very easily be forgiven if he/she thought that Gen Muntu was campaigning for the FDC primaries against Mr. Museveni!

    Peter Okello

  6. ugandansatheart,

    WBK,

    I wish to assure you that both FDC and IPC have manifesto teams and they are working . I sit on FDC one and it did a lot of work end of last year Yes, we have listened and gathered a lot to rural folks although not thru focus groups
    .As we fight for electoral reforms we are also preparing for the elections just in case.
    Waf

  7. ugandansatheart,

    Mr. Wafula-Oguttu:

    I forgot to add that by now you IPC folks should have identified and tested through focus groups and polling issues that will appeal to the woman voter in Kagadi, Serere, Buginyanya, Kidera, Kiboga, Palabek, Ibanda and Kasese. I believe that the medium voter in Uganda is a rural woman with 5 children, limited education and not the urban male voter.

    By now the opposition should be bubbling with ideas and not so much about personalities. Personalities or youth without ideas is nothing.

    There are so many that if well packaged could gain traction with voters. May be you are discussing ideas but we get the feeling that not much is happening to fine tune ideas.

    So where are your ideas on governance, health, education, economy/job creation, rural-urban linkages, environment, security, gender relations, land, energy/oil, taxation and so on? Have you bothered to consult Ugandans through focus groups or polling about issues that matter to them, issues they would like to see addressed?

    Sometimes I get the feeling that the opposition in Uganda believes, wrongly that voters care most about IPC or inter-party unity. If by now you have not moved on policy, when are you going to have time to revise the proposals/add or delete?

    That is why I cautioned you to move because different parties may have different priorities and you need time to harmonize the respective IPC party manifestos. And of course you need time to deal with bombshells ala Sebaggala.

    So has IPC or even FDC held a policy forum to discuss your program? Who are the members of your program committee-you do not have to tell me the names? Ideally, the IPC programs should be endorsed by the highest IPC organ and not the other way round. You better trust the voters and not assume that because they are of modest education they do not know what they want.
    Mr Wafula-Oguttu:

    Good luck. But remember politics is like courtship. At one state you have to pop the question: will you marry me (women too can pop the question)? The answer can be yes, no, or give me time since I am not yet ready. But ask you have.

    That is what you in FDC will have to ask the other members of IPC or opposition parties in Uganda. The sooner you pop the question the better so you can have time to prepare for the big dance next year.And of course harmonize your ideas.

    Once again good luck because the chaos in DP means that I have now to zip my mouth to avoid unnecessary problems and suspicions on my character.

    Hope for the best but prepare for the worst which is that IPC does not take off. As the Kikuyus say “tuwonane rwothio”

    WBK

  8. Ntanda Musa,

    The most significant message i can read from most comments above is that everyone is mentioning a solution that is politicking to corrupt and not to correct. Of course the youth are very likely to come out strong in the coming elections (even demographics have the early signs – >75% are under 25 yrs.). And of course the over 50’s that i call old guard have to adopt a ‘change’ attitude. And if any opposition member is serious on their goals they they have to have the same catchphrase.
    Secondly i don’t think we need a third party in the 2011’s. It’s called cultivating responsibility. So what the NRM will rig, the IPC can rig too and the responsibility still lies with the citizen. Whoever goes on next term sh’d be ready to bear the consequences of the 2011 outcome. The note of caution in some remarks gives anyone a plain idea of how unpatriotic, unserious and selfish politicians are. You foresee someone going to rig elections and yr solution is divide and rule? Why are you attacking the proclaimed Visionaries? I don’t think our problem lies with a mere political party but with their own readiness to outgrow the current suffrage. And that is yr only task and ticket past 2011 Mr. Politician.

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