It is true the CPA Agreement is silent on the issue of the Nile, implying that if the New Southern Sudan state may choose to do what it pleases with the Nile as they are not bound by the colonial Nile treaty although this could be the subject of a protracted international legal case, focusing on inherited responsibilities
To conclusively understand this issue, one needs to closely consider the following:Strategic interests of Uganda, Southern Sudan and Egypt vis-à-vis the Nile water;The degree and scope of control/influence Egypt and Uganda have over the new entrant (southern Sudan);The international and economic options of the new Southern Sudan State.
Other than Kenya, Uganda is a key ally of the SPLM, hence South Sudan, it has made strategic investments in the SPLM struggle and government, and remains critical to the security and economic health of a new south Sudan state, simply put; south Sudan will collapse without Uganda’s support (logistical and supply lines, foreign investments, geographical location and supply of manufactured items; the latter clearly demonstrated in the multi-billion investment in the Nimule-Juba road and recent trade figures between Uganda and South Sudan).
Uganda on the other hand seeks regional domination and repute through control of South Sudan (so far, we have played very good patronage to the South), its a pretty good market; check our exports statistics since the CPA was signed.
Egypt on the other hand has the Nile at the top of its national security. While the current Nile agreement tends to favor Egypt and North Sudan, the fact is that the portion is simply not enough and even the slightest reduction will lead to significant impacts on the Egyptian economy, they recognize these hence the explanation for the Egyptian envoy in Jinja, their reluctance to re-negotiate, and the recent overtures towards south sudan in light of increasing signs of breakaway from the North, its a courtship in the making.
Uganda has been at the forefront of revising the Nile agreement not because it is critical to its economy (except for power generation) but for moral (right and wrong) as well as regional power issues; which Egypt has resisted.
My impression is Uganda will use South Sudan state as a tool to put more pressure on Egypt since the south depends more on Uganda than Egypt and they too like Uganda have little to directly utilize the Nile in the immediate future.
Keep in mind the Nile agreement only serves the interests of North Sudan and Egypt hence any actions are likely to affect the two more than any other state.
In the unlikely event that the opposition wins (I am under the impression they will loose and become even more weakened as a result of absorption of strong individuals into the NRM; this will leave Mao a stronger contender in the next election), I have the feeling that they still have no concrete plans for the Nile and it would be unwise for us to attempt to guess what they will do even when they themselves don’t know. I reckon they will concentrate more on establishing themselves internally other than rocking the boat internationally and regionally in the event that they win.
As Abbey Semuwemba says; “Byebyo banange”