Countrymen, I regret to inform you that the FDC President, Col Kizza Besigye, has been shot in the right hand by Police. His Personal Assistant has confirmed that he is in an ambulance, being rushed from Kasangati to Kitante Medical Centre by the Red Cross. It is the height of irony that a freedom fighter who spent almost four years fighting for liberation in Luwero and came out of the war uninjured, has been shot in Kampala for trying to walk to work! This is an absolute outrage.
Besigye is good at chess, Museveni has 3 moves.The issue of inflation and fuel prices is a very contentious issue to and appeals to all Ugandans. From a strategic perspective it has left the movement in a very precarious situation with very few options.
In chess the opposition has played a fork, one of two pieces will have to be lost. But the game can still be won.
FIRST PIECE- Museveni could have left the opposition to continue their walk to work which could have had a snowball effect as we have seen, with the public gradually joining the walk which would have given Besigye the leverage of Ghandi’s walk Salt Satyagraha, of March 12, 1930 in opposition to the British salt monopoly.
SECOND PIECE- Movement could continue attacking the opposition and allowing them to commit ‘sucide’ at the hands of the Ugandan police which has very little public sympathy because of their bad record of brutality and corruption and risk creating a Mohamed Bouazizi effect.(Bouazizi committed suicide in Tunisia after the Police spit on himand insulted his dead father because of his failure to pay a fine of 7USD for selling vegetables illegally, leading to the Jasmine
revolution on December 07, 2010.)
Either way Museveni has to lose one piece it is up to him to choose which of the pieces to loose, but he will have to lose one, a move which he has big problems with because he lacks humility and can not concede losing anything to Besigye. Besigye knew this from the get go.
His third move would be to attack a bigger piece, remembering that the REAL stake holders in this game are the Ugandan voters, who are watching now, Mr. Museveni. It would not be a bad idea for you (Mr. President) to come out now when it is still early and announce cuts in on another contentious issue on the budget and divert the Ugandan public from this issue. Or attack the issue itself and reduce taxes on fuel prices and concede defeat to the opposition losing the battle but not the war.