Museveni didn’t study political revolutions and what cause them because what he is doing is exactly what has caused revolutions in time and space. Museveni specialized in colonialism, imperialism and slave trade. That is what he has been practicing. He has colonized Uganda, he is working on Tutsi Empire and companies are exporting Ugandans to international labor markets for a fee. To ward off criticism, Museveni doesn’t blame colonizers and slave traders. He has instead blamed Africans for accepting to be colonized and enslaved. Soon he will be telling Ugandans it is their fault for accepting to be colonized, exploited and to work in international labor markets under harsh conditions.
Those who have studied Museveni closely can’t fail to realize that he was driven principally by the desire to find land for his landless people, explaining in large part his search for a Tutsi Empire in the Great Lakes region and beyond in collaboration with foreigners. He would have moved faster in grabbing Uganda land for Tutsi settlers had it not been for the decision taken in the early part of NRM government against giving land to Tutsis.
But Museveni didn’t give up. Instead, he has designed other subtle ways to grab land for foreign occupation principally Batutsi who in one way or another are aware that if you come to Uganda chances are you will get a piece of land to settle on. That is why Tutsi people are trekking to Uganda from as far as South Kivu province in DRC and entering the country through western Uganda. Ugandans shouldn’t be surprised if the next population census records substantial increase in Tutsi population that may register as Bafumbira or Bakiga or Baganda etc.
Foreign occupation of Uganda land and the proposed removal of state boundaries in the East African community are serious national security issues that our leaders should take seriously if they are still patriotic. Those who want to take over our country are going to scream that I am promoting genocide in order to silence me and discourage those that would join in this noble cause to protect our country and citizens. Uganda needs bold and selfless leaders not those who are compromised or are even foreigners using Uganda names and languages to tighten colonization of Uganda and change the demographic composition with foreign settlers. These are national security matters and we shouldn’t be shy talking about them, otherwise we shall have no home for ourselves and our children and theirs. We may end up tenants in our country.
Museveni opened the door for foreign entry by arguing that Uganda has plenty of unutilized arable land implying that Uganda can accommodate more people, contradicting population advisers who argue that Uganda doesn’t have more land and couples should limit the size of their families through birth control. This is a very tricky situation: Museveni is inviting foreign settlers while population experts are telling Ugandans to reduce their population size drastically in order to create space for foreigners. Do you see the trick? Uganda is also practicing the concept of willing seller and willing buyer of property including land.
NRM government has come up with the concept of enlarging urban areas such as Greater Kampala, and municipal expansions which are controlled by municipal authorities with power to transfer land from those who own it to others under the pretext to promote rapid development. And freedom of mobility and settlement anywhere in Uganda is guaranteed by the constitution. These arrangements have created facilities to ‘bus’ into Uganda Tutsis mostly from Burundi, Rwanda and Eastern DRC. To hide their Tutsi ethnicity they pose as Bafumbira or Congolese. Those who pose as Bafumbira want to claim they are Uganda citizens with a right to settle and own land anywhere in the country.
A common thread that runs through most if not all revolutions is land. When land is concentrated in few hands a number of things happen that trigger revolutions unless checked before they explode. First, you create landlessness and second, the landless concentrate in urban slums doing odd jobs to make ends meet. In Europe the enclosure system that created massive landlessness didn’t result in political revolutions because the industrial revolution absorbed excess labor. Where labor opportunities are limited, landlessness and hardship in urban areas and exploitation of labor on large farms generate forces for a revolution. In the French, Russian, Mexican and Ethiopian revolutions, the desire for land together with other problems such as food shortages and unemployment contributed to the revolutions in these countries. Lenin won support for his October 1917 revolution by promising land and bread. The French, Russian and Ethiopian revolutions resulted in land redistribution to peasants. The use of force to contain the situation didn’t work because most soldiers like those in Uganda come from impoverished families and sided with them rather than protect those that have caused the suffering in the first place like Haile Selassie, Louis XVI and Nicholas II.
We also need to realize that decolonization was bloodiest in areas of white settlement and indigenous landlessness like in Algeria, Kenya, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
In Uganda Museveni is contributing to forces that have elements of a political revolution. Land is changing hands from indigenous to foreigners, causing many landless Ugandans to concentrate in sprawling urban slums. Lack of employment has raised the level of youth unemployment and under employment to explosive levels. Museveni reliance on security forces to contain the situation may not work in the end. Before the 1789 French Revolution began, the king believed that the urban population that had gathered in Paris demanding food would be contained by the police or the army if necessary. The security forces joined the mob instead and ended the French ancient regime. Similarly, in Russia what began as women demonstration for food and the Czar thought it could be contained by security forces turned into a revolution that ended the Romanov rule because police and military joined the demonstrators. Uganda security forces could desert the Commander- in –Chief in the face of increasing deprivation of their relatives and family members.
To preempt a political revolution in Uganda, it is suggested that Museveni stops distributing Uganda land to foreigners. He should reverse Prime Minister Mbabazi decision that peasant land will be allocated to foreign large scale farmers. Mbabazi statement with or without Museveni approval has agitated many Ugandans. NRM government should also create an enabling environment to create jobs so that the current high youth unemployment level is reduced significantly. NRM macroeconomic, economic liberalization, exchange and interest rate policies have made it difficult to create jobs through high economic and labor-intensive growth. Massive unemployment of youth is potentially explosive.
Finally, here is some advice for Museveni. There is no guarantee that you will continue to enjoy military and foreign support. When Emperor Haile Selassie, at one time considered the father of Africa, failed to contain the riotous situation in 1974 that degenerated into a revolution, he was abandoned by the military including the imperial guard and foreign supporters. The latter blamed him for a flawed autocratic style of leadership which they knew all along. After the fall of the emperor, Ethiopia was engulfed in a civil war exactly what happened in Russia, France and Mexico in the wake of revolutions there. Museveni should also keep in mind about what happened in the warm relations between Tutsi and Belgian authorities before the 1959 social revolution in Rwanda.
If complacency continues, Museveni and Uganda could be next. Many Ugandans have reached a point where they believe they have nothing to lose and are ready to take risks which could explode into a revolution. What is remaining is a spark which could happen any moment. Our development partners should also be aware of the potentially dangerous situation in a Uganda they consider stable. Kenya was considered stable until the Rift Valley exploded.