I have been paying too much attention to the real contested election in Kenya but woke up to the news that the late Nebanda’s sister had won Butaleja women’s seat with a landslide.
So the big question: why did not the opposition FDC read the times and stay away? I mean it was clear to those with strategic savvy that a Nebanda would replace their late sister. Then out of sheer political stupidity, yes political stupidity, FDC got in the race. Dumb decision. Poor judgment. Strategic ineptitude. Name it.
The smart thing would have been to pass and let Ms. Florence Nebanda Andiru succeed the late Hon Nebanda . How on earth did FDC expect to reverse the emotional tide in Butaleja especially to go against the late Nebanda’s political savvy mother? I wonder why the mother never went for the seat herself given her political savvy. It is paper or what? She could have won with a bigger margin.
Can FDC tell us how it expected to win? And what was that about that Hon Salamu Musumba who was caught with soap and sugar was going to visit her grandmother. Really? Excuse me.
Folks, Uganda’s opposition lack political savvy to advance their cause. Butaleja is one of those cases where the opposition would have won by not fielding any candidate. That is by empathizing with the Nebanda family. FDC was the biggest loser. That is right. I mean FDC wanted to have it both ways. Criticizing NRM and sort of empathizing with the late Nebanda family. Then it jumped into the race.
It was clear from the word go that no one would go against the late Hon Nebanda’s mother in Butaleja. FDC did and got burnt big time.Politics in Uganda is a contradiction.
No way was Butaleja going to vote for FDC with a Nebanda on the ballot. Nebanda won on sheer emotion or empathy. Who in FDC could match the late Nebanda’s mother on the trail? Again even if FDC deluded itself that it could win, it should have stayed out of Butaleja.
Honestly, I do no buy the story that Ms Salamu Musumba was going to visit her grandmother. The truth of the matter is that she was going to campaign for FDC. Visiting the grandmother was secondary.
What I am saying is that given the emotions following Nebanda’s death and then having her sister nominated, it would have been better to let her sister win it without spending any political capital.
FDC does not need to be publicized in Butaleja. If I recall correctly, the FDC candidate was not even the runner up. That is why I still believe that FDC would have been better served in the long term had it gone to Butaleja to declare support for Ms Florence Nebanda Andiru. Yes to endorse and campaign for Nebanda against the two independents. FDC would have earned a lot of good will in Bunyole.
Sure there was anger towards NRM, but to their credit and to the contradiction of the family, NRM picked Ms Florence Nebanda to be their candidate. On many levels Butaleja was a contradiction of Uganda’s politics. Once NRM picked Nebanda the anger towards NRM was mitigated and Nebanda was going to win hands down. That is when FDC should have made the smart decision to stay out.
Actually what FDC did in Butaleja is similar to what NRM does during bye elections it lost or loses. NRM does not need those seats but it goes and the voters burn them. Luwero is soon coming up and NRM will be beat hands down again, but the so called mobilizers who eat the money will want to contest.
I actually believe that it was the mother and not the president who swayed voters. The agony of the mother was too much for the people of Bunyole to ignore.
For NRM, Butaleja with Nebanda is one seat they did not need to use violence. So NRM shot itself in the foot too but for them they won.
Bottom line, the opposition should mature and desist from contesting for the sake of it. I would urge FDC to stay out of Luwero women seat too, but knowing how FDC thinks, they will go there and lose again!
My reasoning is supposed to help the opposition in Uganda. I am their honest critic, plus I am an equal opportunity critic, to both NRM and the opposition. I know you see it differently but think again.
FDC made a big mistaken to contest in Bunyole, ok, Butaleja where it came in distant third or fourth.