These are two members of the east African community that share a common border and have been working on realization of the East African political federation under one president in the shortest time possible. Now they are at each other’s throat. This has resulted in Banyarwanda being thrown out of Tanzania with many of them entering Uganda with their cattle and causing tremendous problems especially at a time when Uganda is facing serious economic, social, financial and environmental challenges. The increased pressure on dwindling resources is likely to result in agitation by adversely affected Ugandans which will likely be met by brutal force from NRM security forces.
Preventing peaceful assembly and association of more than three Ugandans under the recently passed Public Order Management bill will likely push Ugandans against the wall. Ugandans that have been arguing that peaceful means of resolving the current political impasse have failed will have an excuse to call for armed struggle against the NRM government.
Let us be very clear: rushing into war without consultation with and clearance by leaders in the Great Lakes region, then African Union and finally UN Security Council attacking NRM government first will not be received kindly. The opposition will be blamed and Museveni will get the excuse he has been looking for to hunt down real and imagined enemies and liquidate them with impunity.
Outlawing demonstrations by the NRM government does not alone constitute grounds for launching a military attack against an unpopular government. We must move cautiously. Museveni sees his Tutsi empire project on fire and he is like a wounded animal ready to jump at anyone that makes a wrong move. His vision 2040 was rejected on the day it was launched. The Agreement with Mengo is likely to end up like vision 2040.
What Ugandans need to do now that assembly and association have been prohibited is to stop cooperation with the regime. Should the government use force to restore cooperation, we shall then have a case to use other means necessary in self defense which the African Union and the United Nations will go along with.