After coming off the long train commute from the gym; I just rode in a cab owned by a Ugandan Cab driver and without provocation he told me that ” I have voted in every election since 1995 and I have voted against M7 every single time. In the next election I am going to vote for him for the first time.” And I was like “even with the bad roads and corruption” without batting an eye the fellow was like “yup!”
Has this issue won M7 a new term? 2 years between now and 2016 is a life time in politics.
1) It is only in the past 25 years Gays have made serious advancement in most Western countries. As we speak many states in the United States are still battling with whether to give Same Sex marriage partners Healthcare;
2) So the question then begs: why are Western countries expecting African countries to have a faster trajectory in regards to Sexual orientation advancement? It was only in the late 70’s when many of the laws against homosexuality were repealed, which is yesterday in historical terms.
3) Politics is driving the story on both sides of the divide. The Gay lobby in the Democratic Party is a lot stronger than most Ugandans know. Democrats cannot win in the State with the biggest electoral college (55) voted without Gay support. Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to California and New York.
Furthermore; the Democratic Party is funded by a number of Billionaires among whom are Gay. Ever heard of David Geffen? So Barack Obama does not have any other option than to be up front on this issue, especially with the mid-term election at the end of the year.What may happen is that they will cutoff some symbolic stuff in order to satisfy the liberal wing of the party. Guess what they may have been planning all along to cut some of the aid because of budgets cuts in due to the upcoming budget deal.
As long as this Siasa; they will both play to their constituency. I can almost bet you M7 made them aware what he was going to do but due to political theatrics the Democratic Administration had to play as if they are just hearing about.
4) For M7 it is almost a no brainer as to where his political campus will point to. Most of us, me included who find folly with this bill are outside the country and I hate to say do not matter in the long run.
In politics; morally right and politically right are two different things. Not many African leaders are willing to spend political Capital on such an explosive issue. If anything for M7 is going to gain political Capital by being seen as bucking the West on this issue;
5) If you think I am kidding, notice how none existent Uganda’s opposition is in this debate. Their problem is that most of their supporters are with M7 or he is with them or this issue. They cannot take stand supporting this bill because they will upset a US Democratic Administration who are more receptive to them than a Republican Administration, who were warmer to M7. Silence in the meantime wins them no political capital at all.
6) The danger for Uganda and many African countries is that all the right conditions for hysteria are being put in place. When it starts it will be very hard to put the Genie back in the bottle again.
On south Sudan and Uganda involvement,What I am hearing is that:
1) After the dust has somewhat settled, Kiir is not looking very good in many a Western Capital simply because no credible evidence of a Coup by Machar has emerged;
2) To say that M7 saved his skin (Kiir’s) is an understatement. The problem with that is that Kiir when compared to Machar, is now being viewed as the political weakling. That is never a good thing in power politics. Political and economic interests can shift in a blink of an eye;
3) The biggest career mistake Kiir made was to fire Rebecca Garang from Cabinet. The Garang wing of SPLA all shifted loyalties or warm to Machar;
4) Someone told me that there may be 2 Million Ugandans in S.Sudan. I’m a little skeptical of that number simply because that represents almost 5% of the total Ugandan population, but there are people who swear by that number;
5) Those Ugandans have in all intent and purpose have not sent money back home. The harbinger of things to come is felt at many a Forex Bureau.
Some project a Recession in the Ugandan economy very soon.
As for Syria; I think Obama was very smart to stay out of it. Trust me Assad is looking like a better option as every day passes by. The Rebels are all Al Queda affiliated and they have began blowing each other up.
I think the Obama Administration has decided quietly to let Assad survive because he is the less of two evils!
MOSES OCEN NEKYON