The NRM constitution allows all members with the minimum qualifications (kindergarten) to contest for any position within the party. But because president Museveni is extremely scared of competition, he is not about to allow Amama Mbabazi to stand against him. On his own, Mbabazi may seem insignificant, but it is the fragmentation in support that bothers the strategists.
Remember there is Gilbert Bukenya, Ssejusa, the rebel MPs, JPM’s sister in-low, and then the silent opponents still testing the waters before jumping in. These groups could easily cause a lot of disorganisation within the party, forcing the regime to either use upper hand methods to nutralise the threat, or steal the votes in full view of everybody UPC style. The internal dynamics of the NRM party have shifted towards change, it is that change that scares the president hence the efforts to suppress it through the Kyankwanzi resolution, purging, humiliation, and so on.
There is a realisation by some actors that the NRM political class can not continue to pretend as if all is fine, but because the borrower is a servant to the lender, president Museveni knows that his support on the ground is not solid enough to have others run against him. The bunkum blame game that president Museveni has employed for very many years is tired and has finally outlived its usefulness. 30yrs and you still move around the country blaming the opposition and the thieves stealing medicines and mattresses from Mulago hospital? Is it not because the institutions of government that could have dealt with them have all but been rendered impotent by the president himself?
Considering that both Mbabazi and Ssejusa, but also Gilbert Bukenya are not that popular with the people in the country compared to say Dr. Besigye, but still find considerable residual support here and there is in it’self tantalising. The president doesn’t know what they have in store for him, so why take chances if you can circumnavigate the threat by offering JPAM a prime ministerial position? Ssejusa’s history needs no introduction or explanation to anybody, and so is Mbabazi’s enemies from both within the party and the public. As for Bukenya, that one is a joker, I think he wants to attract Museveni’s attention.
JOHN NSUBUGA VIA THE UAH FORUM